Societe Generale: "Trump's Trade Policy Uncertainty Poses Major Risk for the EU"

Societe Generale economists suggested that the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policy following his election as U.S. President could have a greater impact on the economic growth and inflation of the European Union than potential tariffs. In a research note, they indicated that models such as the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook showed that a 10% increase in tariffs would have a limited effect on economic activities and a negligible effect on inflation.

According to the economists, the main concern lies in the uncertainty of trade policy, deviations from U.S. budget targets, restrictions on financial flows, and potential shifts in energy prices and interest rates. There is a focus on how these factors could exert more pressure on the European economy.

UBS Global Wealth Management stated that China plans to maintain its economic policies until Trump's tariff strategy becomes clearer. A commentary report published by UBS's Chief Investment Office indicated that the postponement of China's budget stimulus reflects leaders' desire to pursue a safe path in trade policy. The same report emphasized that Chinese stocks have significantly maintained their gains since mid-September. Experts noted that this situation suggests that Chinese markets could remain resilient despite strategic waiting. These fluctuations could lead to significant volatility in the Asia-Pacific region and global trade balances.